The Big Four Waste Predictions for 2026

Advetec’s Chief Strategic Development Officer, Dr Stephen Wise, expects 2026 to be a year of greater waste intelligence, recycling investment and technology adoption, but warns that waste crime may be set to spike as waste disposal costs soar.

Here, he shares his big four predictions for the waste and resources industry.

1. Greater waste insights as the ETS MRV begins
   The inclusion of Energy-from-Waste (EfW) within the UK and European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will take a vital step forward. While full ETS obligations are due to begin in 2028, the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) period is expected to start this year. This will be a landmark moment, starting the process of collecting the baseline emissions data that will ultimately set benchmarks and shape future costs and operational decisions. Although the consultation process has been delayed, operators will need to prepare for new monitoring methodologies and reporting requirements with urgency.
2. Chemical recycling investment will accelerate and reshape plastics recovery
   We will see a step-change in investment into chemical recycling of plastics, with several new UK and European facilities becoming operational. Waste operators will need to be ready to take advantage of this offtake route by supplying cleaner and better-sorted plastic feedstock. Consequently, we expect this to drive further investment in UK sorting and pre-treatment infrastructure. Greater use of chemical recycling will also move large volumes of plastic away from traditional recycling routes as the industry makes another sizeable push towards circularity.
3. The impetus for innovation intensifies
   A greater drive from the DEFRA Circular Economy Task Force, combined with the impact of key regulations such as Simpler recycling, EPR and ETS MVR, will create an environment that drives further investment in innovation for waste treatment and processing. In particular, we expect the forthcoming bans on untreated biological municipal waste in England and Scotland, which are just over the horizon, to really galvanise action and accelerate the adoption of new and more sustainable waste treatment methods and offtakes.
4. Waste crime will continue to rise as regulatory resources are stretched
   2025 saw some audacious examples of waste crime in the UK – as thousands of tonnes of waste appeared in illegal dumps in Kent and Oxfordshire. With the likelihood of being caught still relatively low and penalties insufficient as a deterrent, waste crime will continue to grow. The Environment Agency is already struggling with limited resources, and the nature and location of these crimes highlight how difficult it is to intervene at scale. Without significant investment in enforcement, illegal dumping will remain an escalating problem – particularly as reduced landfill and EfW capacity drive up the cost of appropriate waste disposal.

Taken together, these trends point to a sector at an inflection point. As regulation tightens and new offtake routes emerge, the ability to stabilise, improve and evidence material quality will increasingly define operational resilience and long-term value. In 2026, waste operators that prioritise smarter treatment, better data and future-ready processing will be best placed to manage risk, unlock higher-value recovery routes and stay ahead of rising costs. The opportunity now is to move beyond disposal and design systems that make waste more predictable, compliant and fit for a truly circular economy.